Travaux_collectifs_EN

Study / Summary of prospective studies on the availability of and demand for biomass for industrial energy use

The growing need for biomass to decarbonise the economy raises questions about its availability and competition for use between now and 2050.

On a global scale, biomass consumption for energy purposes is expected to increase sharply (the International Energy Agency, for example, forecasts a 48% increase between 2020 and 2050 in its Net Zero scenario).

This increase will be driven mainly by the need to produce carbon-free electricity and heat and by demand from the industrial sector. In France, although electricity is already largely decarbonised, consumption of heat from combustion and biogas is also expected to increase.

However, bio-resources use much more land than other decarbonisation options, and their limited potential raises a number of key questions:
  • What is the best land use trade-off?
  • How can biomass be developed while preserving biodiversity and carbon sinks?
  • How can we prioritise the use of biomass to meet all our needs and optimise the decarbonisation of our society?
The ALLICE study, based on a meta-analysis of publicly available studies, assesses the challenges involved in mobilising France's biomass resources in the future to meet industrial demand for bioenergy:

  • Quantification du gisement de biomasse mobilisable en 2030 et 2050 Quantifying the biomass resource that can be mobilised in 2030 and 2050
  • Biomass demand scenarios
  • Competition and prioritisation of uses
  • Identification of key factors for optimising the use of the resource
Most scenarios show a shortage of biomass to meet bioenergy demand between now and 2030 and 2050. Due to the significant differences between the scenarios in terms of assumptions and hence projections of availability and demand, the results obtained do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn on the biomass shortfall. Regular updates of this work will allow the analysis to be refined.

Executive summary