Future availability of Hydrogen
Worldwide, in 2022, hydrogen consumption was estimated at around 94 million tonnes[1], and its production was still mainly carbon-based, with 81% coming from natural gas or coal.
At a time when the consumption of hydrogen is predicted to rise sharply, particularly in the energy sector (this vector is identified in the France 2030 plan as one of the levers of industrial decarbonisation), the question arises of the availability of more environmentally friendly and sustainable production methods. Indeed, the increase in demand should open up new prospects for the use and decarbonisation of the energy, mobility and housing sectors.
In a context where various projects are emerging to use hydrogen to decarbonise different applications, many uncertainties remain. The production of "green" hydrogen remains limited by the capacity to develop additional renewable energies, and the integration of carbon-based hydrogen is not a virtuous solution for decarbonising industrial processes. Furthermore, the development costs of hydrogen remain uncertain, depending on the still unclear development of renewable energies for its production, as well as of electrolysers and their operating methods, which is holding back players in their projections and investments in this sector.
The objectives of the study are as follows:
Based on a meta-analysis of public studies, the ALLICE study assesses the challenges related to the availability of hydrogen for industrial uses in France by addressing the following questions:
- How should hydrogen uses be prioritised to optimise decarbonisation, and what role should industrial applications play in this? For which uses should hydrogen be prioritised over other alternatives?
- What are the challenges for hydrogen infrastructure development given the uncertainty about the evolution of its uses?
- What future synergies with other countries could be envisaged? What infrastructure would be required?
Among the conclusions of this study:
- There are still a number of uncertainties surrounding the role of hydrogen in industrial applications in France in 2050.
- H2 production should be driven by future demand and decarbonised by electrolysis, although there are still challenges to overcome in this sector, particularly in terms of cost.
- The studies reviewed show significant differences in their projections of demand for H2 for different uses, revealing very different assumptions
- When analysing the mobilisation of H2 in France, it is essential to take account of European issues and the related questions of supply.
- The report provides a critical analysis of the key indicators of the technical and economic competitiveness of hydrogen and its alternatives.
